Supramax Index Weekly
Support – 10,740, 10,045, 9,081
Resistance – 11,891, 12,643, 13,594
As noted on the last report the Supramax index was starting to look over extended and a corrective wave was due. We have now seen 9 consecutive down days as the stochastic enters oversold territory. Not a buy signal, based on previous price action and the stochastic it would suggest the corrective wave should soon find support.
Key support is at USD 10,045 keeping the index in bull territory at this point. Upside moves above this level would suggest that the index should target new highs in the near term. However, failure to achieve a new high would alert technical sellers to the possibility of a directional change in trend, or a consolidation phase.
A close below USD 10,045 would suggest a weakening technical, likewise a close below USD 10,740 would be below a 61.8% retracement and indicate that the trend is potentially weakening.
Supramax Nov 17 Daily
Support – 10,713, 10,160, 9,940
Resistance – 12,520, 12,730, 12,960
The Nov futures are currently in a bearish trend bias, and currently testing the 50 period MA.
The stochastic is now oversold, not a buy signal it does suggest that downside movement from here is limited.
Due to the trend being technically bearish, upside moves from here should be regarded as counter trend and of higher risk. Upside moves that fail to close above USD 12,730 would suggest downside continuation, however a close above this level would neutralise the bearish trending environment.
Technically bearish, but oversold in the near term.
Supramax Q1 Daily
Support – 9,280, 8,880, 8,710
Resistance – 9,500, 9,665, 9,820
The corrective phase is currently producing lower highs and lower lows whish from a technical perspective is regarded as bearish.
The current market low is not being matched by the stochastic and this has resulted in a small bullish divergence forming. Not a buy signal it does warn of weakening momentum and suggest that downside moves from her could be limited.
Upside moves that close above USD 9,500 would neutralise the current down move and increase the probability of a higher low forming.
Conversely, upside moves that fil to close above USD 9,500 would suggest downside continuation. However market sellers should remain cautious if the bullish divergence is still in play.
Supramax Cal 18 Daily
Support – 9,557, 9,190, 8,840
Resistance – 9,746, 9,853
The divergence mentioned on the last report came into play and resulted in lower pricing for the Cal 18 futures.
The stochastic is now oversold but remains in bearish territory, however price action remains above the 34 period EMA and 50 period MA and these have preciously acted as trend support.
Upside moves that fail to close above USD 9,746 would suggest downside continuation, as would a close below USD 9,557.
Upside moves that close above USD 9,746 would neutralise the current bear move and increase the probability of a lower high forming.
Technically bearish we remain above key averages on an oversold stochastic. Caution on a close above USD 9,746.
Source: Hellenic Shipping News.